Commentary on Geotab’s 2020 EV Fleet Trends Article – Part I

‍

At the beginning of this year, Geotab published a very interesting white paper titled “Electric Vehicle Trends 2020: Top 6 Factors Impacting Fleet Electrification.” (The piece can be found in its entirety here: https://www.geotab.com/white-paper/electric-vehicle-trends/) Now that we’re approaching the end of 2020, we thought it might be useful to go back through the assertions made in the paper to determine (1) whether the trends are evolving as Geotab predicted, and (2) if so, how EVCS is able to address those trends, including the targeting of customer pain points. Below are the first three trends referenced out of the six and our thoughts on each.

(1) The EV price tag will continue to drop as battery costs fall

The Prediction: The most significant factors the paper cites toward this assertion are improvements in battery technology (primarily the shift from cobalt to cheaper nickel-based cathodes), increased scale of battery manufacturing as demand grows, and government policies that invest in the development of battery technology. It notes as evidence that the average EV battery pack dropped from $1,160/kWh in 2010 to $176/kWh in 2018.

The Assessment: According to data compiled by BloombergNEF that was not available when the paper was written, this figure fell even further to $156/kWh in 2019. Moreover, on September 22nd, Elon Musk announced several improvements that will reduce Tesla battery prices by 56% over the course of the next three years. Bottom line, this trend is gradually occurring as predicted, with fleets that buy vehicles in large scale poised to be one of the top beneficiaries. EVCS is currently helping industrial, commercial and municipal entities take advantage of growing EV demand amid falling prices by installing more charging stations on their properties that will support larger vehicle fleets.

(2) Electrification will spread into the heavier vehicle segments

The Prediction: In 2018, while EV fleets were comprised of more than five million cars, only 460,000 electric buses and 250,000 light-duty commercial vehicles were in use. Geotab saw stricter emissions laws, progress in battery chemistry, and an ever-expanding variety of EV models as surefire signs that electrification of heavier duty vehicles was next. Main growth areas would likely be commercial vans, buses and medium- to heavy-duty trucks.

The Assessment: One week ago, Ford debuted its first commercial electric van, the E-Transit, to go on sale in 2021 with multiple configurations. And GM announced in June it will start producing a battery-electric van in late 2021. Buses got a big boost this year as Proterra announced in early October a $200 million investment for battery and electric drivetrain development, while Lightning eMotors doubled its manufacturing space and workforce to meet growing demand for various types of commercial EVs. Additionally, PCMag just announced two weeks ago that Volvo’s electric heavy-duty trucks will hit the roads in 2021. Chalk all this up to another accurate prediction, with EVCS in a pivotal position to help manage the explosion of heavier duty fleets along the West Coast by supplying the necessary charging installations and networking software to power it.

(3) Updates to policy and regulation

The Prediction: The transition to electric will be dominated by government mandates and regulations rather than financial incentives. For instance, states and cities will begin demanding that all new vehicles sold be electric or that reduced CO2 emissions must be met to combat climate change. The paper notes that “California is the state with the most aggressive deployment targets,” motivating nine other states to join them in requiring carmakers to produce ZEVs.

The Assessment: Per Governor Newsom’s executive order in September, CARB is writing regulations to require new medium- and heavy-duty vehicles to be 100% zero-emission by 2045. And now with the election of Joe Biden, expect CAFE standards relaxed by the Trump Administration to be returned to Obama-era levels. That said, while we agree that EV-friendly regulations will grow, legislation like the Moving Forward Act, a $1.5 trillion infrastructure bill that passed the House in July, is chock-a-block with financial incentives that will likely increase the rate of transition. So, we don’t see an abandonment of incentives anytime soon. Either way though, EVCS has already created a turnkey charging solution for fleet operators in California who wish to get a jump on this transition, utilizing existing government subsidies to cover site assessments, permitting, installation, maintenance and grid services.

Our thoughts on the remaining three points of the white paper will be published in a subsequent blog.

‍

Back

Top 10 Reasons Why Mass EV Adoption is Inevitable

According to evadoption.com, EV sales are expected to grow from 3.4% of all new auto sales in 2021 to 29.5% in 2030. In fact, they cite several models that forecast explosive growth in EV ownership across the US over the next decade. See the full sales forecasts here complete with bar charts and supporting data: https://evadoption.com/ev-sales/ev-sales-forecasts/. While skeptics might pooh-pooh these projections as overly optimistic, we believe they may actually fall short of the eventual reality. Of course, only time will tell, but below are our top 10 reasons why we believe EVs will be as commonplace as microwaves come 2030.

Installation of the Month (July 2021): LADOT Lot 657

One of our main goals has been to install charging infrastructure in underserved communities, especially urban population centers that are key to our mission of wider EV adoption. Los Angeles is rife with such neighborhoods, where low-income families who wish to participate in the greening of society cry out for cost-effective ways to be part of the solution. Lincoln Heights, one of the oldest sections of the city, is a prime example. The densely populated area boasts numerous Latino, Asian and Pacific Islander groups who have expressed interest in electric mobility, but historically lacked access to the requisite charging stations. Moreover, with a median age of just 24, Lincoln Heights is brimming with younger generation Angelenos who have already embraced the idea of sustainability, but simply need the opportunity to take action.

West Coast Electric Highway to Receive Extensive Upgrade from EVCS

ARCADIA, Calif. (August XX, 2021) – EV Charging Solutions (EVCS), one of the largest electric vehicle (EV) fast charging network operators on the West Coast, today announced that they are approved and funded by the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) to upgrade 44 and add three new electric vehicle charging stations on the Oregon portion of the original West Coast Electric Highway (WCEH). Eleven of the 47 stations will be called “superstations” and will include three DC fast chargers and one Level 2 AC charger. In all, more than 100 charging ports will be upgraded or added.

Is Policy Action Alone Enough to Reach Net Zero by 2050?

Recently, BloombergNEF published a telling article titled, “Electric Vehicle Sales Set to Rise Faster Than Ever, but More Policy Action Needed to Get on Track for Net Zero.” The author raises many interesting observations about where we are now in the transition to electric mobility; where we’re projected to be in 10, 20 and even 30 years based on current trajectories; and what we need to do if we’re going to be net zero by 2050.

Auto Trends Magazine: Occhiuzzo Debunks 4 Misconceptions Surrounding EV Fast Charging Stations

Our co-founder and CEO, Gustavo Occhiuzzo, is quickly emerging as a thought leader in the world of electric mobility, becoming someone stakeholders can count on to demystify obscurities and address falsehoods surrounding the installation and application of charging infrastructure. Like any new technology, resistance to adoption is often based on fallacious notions, some of which may be perpetrated by those with a financial interest in competing technologies. Therefore, countering such notions with facts is crucial if both drivers and site hosts are to make an informed decision about EV adoption. Occhiuzzo most recently addressed four of the biggest misconceptions surrounding chargers in the article below for Auto Trends Magazine.